| Dear Clients, Colleagues and Friends, At last, September is upon us! There has been a lot of anticipation around the Fall market for the combination of a potential long-awaited interest rate drop, buyers coming back into town, and the coming effects of the upcoming general election are driving many sellers to list their properties now and we are seeing our usually post-Labor Day spike in inventory, which is very welcome. In the first week of September we have seen a lot of new inventory on the market, which is encouraging, and lots of buyers out and bidding on properties – also encouraging! We do tend to see a pause in the market, historically, around general elections, as everyone is nervous and uncertain and those feelings do not make for quick real estate decisions! As well, this year we have the mayoral election in San Francisco, which will be an important to helping our city move forward and overcome the ‘doom loop’ narrative. So we are encouraging our sellers to list now to give the property time to sell before November. Looking at the data, it shows that condo prices remain fairly flat (in August, down 2% year over year) and haven’t seen the appreciation over the past 5-6 years that house prices have, even when you exclude the Downtown condo market. It’s interesting to note from the data that the average days on market to sell a house in District 7 (Pacific Heights/Presidio Heights/Cow Hollow/The Marina) is at 43 days (or 45 days for condos) while in the Sunset, where most houses are still heavily underpriced, the days on market average is 20 days. We are a far cry from the days of properties selling routinely in 2 days with multiple bids over asking, so it is always interesting to recalibrate the new normal! Overbidding percentages have dropped significantly as agents and sellers have moved towards more transparent pricing. Sales volume remains higher than last year as buyers have gotten used to the new normal of higher rates and many sellers can’t hold out forever for a better market. This spike is more significant in the over $5M single-family home category and over $3.5M condo/coop sales. Overall, sales were down in August, but we feel the Fall presents a great opportunity for savvy buyers as mortgage rates have already shifted down to account for the expected Fed rate cut, but some buyers are still waiting for the official word/further cuts. It’s also a great opportunity for sellers, while inventory is still so tight and before there is more competition as rates fall. We have spoken to many sellers who are waiting on the sidelines for the mythical moment that rates drop substantially and buyers flood the market, but if that happens (and none of us have a crystal ball), there will also be a large number of sellers coming off the sidelines who have been waiting for that moment, and an increase in inventory will keep prices from rising quickly. As well, if the rates drop substantially, it is likely because the economy is not doing well and unemployment is up, which will affect the prices negatively as well. Everything we have read suggests that there is no conclusive data to point to a drop in rates post-election – if anything in 2016 rates spiked after the election. Bottom line, our opinion is that now is the time to transact, if you have something to sell that you’d like to offload in the next year or two. Beyond a year or two, we don’t know what will happen to prices, if you’re comfortable holding for three to five years. For buyers, we believe that prices will eventually rise as rates fall, and now is the sweet spot between continuing depressed prices and a slight drop in rates. Come Spring, we usually see an uptick of prices again – and we expect that many buyers will be eager to get off the sidelines post-election and holiday slowdown, so it will likely be more competitive. The team is off and running with the launch of new listings the past two weeks: two lovely condominiums in Pacific Heights (2327 Divisadero and 3316 California #4), a gorgeous multi-level home in Presidio Heights (104 Walnut), a sleek condo in Jackson Square (350 Jackson #303), a newly remodeled house in the Inner Richmond (80 6th Avenue) and a truly special property on 2.75 acres in Piedmont (26 Sea View). View all these and more on our website at www.teamhatvany.com On a personal note, the kids are all back to school, including Paul’s son Teddy and Vanessa’s son William, who just started preschool in the same class – here’s a happy first day photo! |
![Image](https://cdn.filestackcontent.com/ALjVIPyY5SBCdSTP1630Sz/rotate=deg:exif/crop=dim:[0,84,510,512]/output=format:png,density:500/resize=width:600,fit:max/auto_image/compress/"https://www.compass.com/m/15/3da5f725-ff70-4340-abe7-c10640a2a4a8/origin.jpg") |
| We may be busy, but we are never too busy to chat with our fantastic clients, so please get in touch for all things real estate! Here is the link to the Flipbook. All the best, Team HatvanyNina, Natalie, Vanessa & Paul |
Social Cookies
Social Cookies are used to enable you to share pages and content you find interesting throughout the website through third-party social networking or other websites (including, potentially for advertising purposes related to social networking).