The Compass Market Report slides on a flipbook can be found here. 

Dear Clients, Colleagues, and Friends of Team Hatvany,

What a whirlwind of a fall market we’ve had! From a slow September, to a remarkable October, we are closing out the year with very little inventory across all neighborhoods and a strong pool of buyers still looking for the right place.

The stock market is at an all-time high and mortgage rates are slowly and slightly on a downward trend. You’ve all doubtless heard the news that the San Francisco market is red-hot now that AI companies are exploding with infusions of cash, and employees are clamoring to buy or rent across the city. We are seeing a particular bump in places like Bernal Heights, which for many years was less popular, but has risen in popularity this fall since the neighborhood is very convenient to downtown or Mission Bay and most AI companies are requiring employees to work from the office. 

October’s sales numbers hit the highest count since May 2022 and were up 28% year over year. The 3-month rolling median house sales price was up 4.5% year over year, and on a single-month basis, the median house price in October was the highest monthly value since mid-2022. Condo median price sales were down slightly year over year, but we expect that with more monthly data that number will go up. 

New listings were down 17% in October and inventory is very tight. The pending ratio, a version of the market absorption rate, soared in October to hit a high not seen since spring 2022 (the peak of the pandemic housing boom). The number of listings going into contract in September and October hit the highest monthly counts since spring 2022 as well. We are anticipating a continued lack of inventory over the winter months, when our market is traditionally slower and the rainy season and lack of sunlight keep us all hibernating. 

Luxury ($5M and up) sales were the best they have been in 4 years – the number of $5M+ home sales surged 44% from this time last year. 80% of home sales and 44% of condo sales sold over list price – although, while this is indicative of a hot market, it’s also indicative of the trend of underpricing. Houses in October 2025 sold on average for 14% above list price, and 2% over for condos. The pricing strategy across the city has been to heavily underprice single-family homes and price condos closer to the expected value.

It’s worth noting that not every listing is selling. Buyers are still relatively picky and shying away from significant renovation or defects that make obtaining insurance difficult – old roofs, old electrical systems (knob and tube, etc.), and a lack of seismic upgrades. Most of the listings that are sitting either started out with too high a price or continue to be priced too high. Listing at the top of a property’s value continues to be a surefire way to achieve an under-asking result over a longer amount of time. 

Anecdotally, we have heard from buyers that they are bidding higher because they are concerned that with more AI money flooding into the city, prices will continue to rise. That remains to be seen! Our experience with unexpected twists and turns in the market (pandemic or tariffs, for example) prevents us from making broad predictions about the spring, but we are certainly hopeful that this fast-paced market picks up again come mid-February. 

Now is a great time to take another look at the homes still sitting on the market, as most sellers are motivated to do a deal before year end. We have some great listings that remain available: 69 Telegraph, a unique Telegraph Hill compound with two single-family homes on adjacent lots, 620 Clarendon, a wonderful townhouse in a gated community in Clarendon Heights, 678 28th Street, a gorgeous redesigned Noe Valley Victorian, 561 Duncan, a newly renovated Noe Valley home, and 26 Sea View, a Gardner-Dailey-designed masterpiece in Piedmont. We also just launched 2828 Divisadero, a 

Pacific Heights large home that has some water damage but presents a unique window of opportunity to buy at a major discount before the remediation is done. Please visit our website at www.teamhatvany.com to learn more about our listings.

On a more personal note, you may notice our logo has changed slightly, and we have a newly revamped website! We changed our team name to Team Hatvany Kitchen (from Team Hatvany). Nina’s last name is Hatvany, and she is married to Jonathan Kitchen, so Natalie, Vanessa and Paul all have “Hatvany Kitchen” for a last name, and we wanted our team name to more accurately reflect its members.

The Hatvany Kitchen family will be gathering for Thanksgiving in a few weeks, and we will certainly be giving thanks to our wonderful community of clients, colleagues and friends who have supported us this year. We hope you have a wonderful holiday season and a safe and happy New Year. Please get in touch if we can help you with anything!

Best,
Team Hatvany Kitchen
Nina, Natalie, Vanessa & Paul