Here is the link to this month’s data charts: Market Report Flipbook

Dear Clients, Colleagues and Friends,

This is shaping up to be the most exciting start to the Spring market that we’ve seen in a few years! Overbidding, multiple offers, busy open houses – things are certainly moving in San Francisco, contrary to the rest of the US!

The combination of AI money and a lack of inventory, as well as a concern over future IPOs and distributions creating more AI-multi-millionaires later this year, have created a sense of urgency for buyers and are pushing prices to record numbers. For example, on a recent home in the Inner Sunset, the seller received 34 offers, and the house went for $1.5M over asking. The asking price was on the low side for the comparable sales, the data actually suggested it should sell for about $500,000 over asking. In this market, add $1M to that figure and you have a deal! 

The most significant area where we’ve seen price gains is in single-family homes, and second to that, large, house-like condominiums. We have seen renewed interest in Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, and downtown high rises, as more buyers return to work full-time and new AI employees are looking for homes. Asking rents for vacant apartments, as well, are hitting highs across the city and are up 11% this year.

The number of luxury home sales rose 220% year over year, to hit their highest month of February count in history. Single family homes median sales prices were up 16% year over year for the past quarter and 22% in February as compared to February 2024. Condo median sales prices, in comparison, rose 8%. Median home price value is a little vague since we have such a big range of housing prices, but the median price per square foot is a bit more accurate – and this rose 12% year over year for single family homes and 4% for condominiums. Larger homes saw the highest appreciation rates, year over year, when measuring median dollars per square foot. Part of the price appreciation can be attributed to inventory – as of March 1st, there were 29% fewer homes on the market as compared to last year. That’s a big pinch in inventory!

After the new year, buyers tend to come into Spring ready to buy and sellers take their time prepping their homes for market after the holidays, so we see big crunch of inventory in January/February – the absorption rate in February for listings was 60% higher than this time last year. Hopefully, as March continues and rolls into April, more inventory is on the horizon. 

Overbidding trends continue as we are seeing the highest percentage of properties selling with overbids since 2022, 64% (77% of houses got overbids, and 54% of condos). For single family homes, the average amount of overbid was 16.5%, and 4.5% for condos. However, this statistic can be distorted by strategic overpricing by listing agents, which we are seeing across the board. The number of price reductions in February declined by 59% year-over-year, and San Francisco was the only Bay Area county that saw a decline in the number of price reductions in 2025!

House appreciation continues to tick up, up 5% from last year, but condos only appreciated 1%, and while houses have appreciated 6% since the pandemic, the condo market is still down from 2019. The highest median condo prices were in Presidio Heights, then in descending order the Marina, Lone Mountain, Cow Hollow, Pacific Heights, Jordan Park, Eureka Valley, Noe Valley, and down from there. For houses, Presidio Heights reigns supreme, with Pacific Heights close behind it, then Cow Hollow, Sea Cliff, Lake St/Jordan Park. There are a lot of off-market sales going on, as buyers strain to get access to homes and avoid a bidding war.

It’s difficult to predict where we go from here. The inventory situation in San Francisco is certainly not improving, and home construction costs continue to rise, so we anticipate that the new price records will remain at least as high if not moving higher as the spring progresses. There are a few things that could put a damper on our market – the war in Iran and potential effects on the supply chain, the stock market, consumer confidence, interest rates, and inflation. We saw this happen in April 2025 – the market was frenzied in the early Spring until tariffs hit, and we experienced a slightly slower-paced market for the rest of the year until the late fall. It remains to be seen whether this is the beginning of an AI-fueled bubble, or if the trajectory is near the top, but either way we don’t prices coming down anytime soon, but nothing is certain in the current political and economic environment.

Our team is keeping up with the busy market — this month and next we will launch a renovated Presidio Heights home on Walnut St (contact us for address), a stylish loft condo in the Outer Mission (2412 Harrison #101) a fabulous single-family home in Cow Hollow (2649 Green Street), a lovely unit in Polk Gulch area (1591 Jackson #508), a mid-century modern home in Russian Hill (1170 Chestnut), and a surfer-chic home in the Outer Sunset (1819 45th Avenue). 

For more information and access to private, off-market inventory, please contact us at team@teamhatvany.com. We love to hear from you!

Best,

Team Hatvany Kitchen

Nina, Natalie, Vanessa & Paul

San Francisco’s #1 Real Estate Team, 2017-2025