| Dear Clients, Colleagues and Friends, 2025 has proved to be an exciting year for the San Francisco market thus far! With little extended rain this winter, we saw more inventory hitting the ground in January than is typical. Property launch dates are getting pushed up and buyers who were waiting on the sidelines last year are very much hot to trot. We have had two condominium listings go into contract, before even hitting the open MLS, both for well over asking price. For those of you that don’t know, one of the big advantages of working with a Compass buyer’s agent is that we get access to Compass Private Exclusives and Coming Soons before the rest of the market, so we can get our buyers in early before the property launches on the public MLS. Many of our other recent listings have sold with multiple competing offers once on the public market. Well-priced, attractive homes without a significant defect have been flying off the shelves, so to speak, and the data reflects that. Looking at the recent first quarter data of 2025, price appreciation for single family homes in February 2024 was up 4% year-over-year (median house sales price), and is now 2% above the pre-pandemic 2019 prices. Median condominium sales prices remained up 1% from 2023 and we believe this rise will continue as the spring data rolls in. Data from the last 12 months is showing that house prices are selling for 110% of list and condo prices are selling right around the listing price, on average. The number of new listings on 3/1/25 was slightly up year-over-year, which is encouraging, and the absorption rate of properties in February was significantly higher than in December – expected due to seasonality, but still good news. Luxury condominium sales have been doing surprisingly well, with sales volume of condos over $2.5M up 60% year-over-year. Days on market, as mentioned above, has plunged since January, and overbidding has spiked, as the spring market heats up. Anecdotally, we have seen the $6,000,000+ market to be extremely active the past two months, with properties going into contract for hundreds of thousands over asking and multiple bids, including those in the $10-$20M range. One really interesting slide is on page 28, which compares the cost of $300,000 in home insurance across all states – California is actually in the middle of the pack, price-wise, with New York, Massachusetts, Colorado, Texas, and Florida all at least double the price. That’s one good thing we’ve got going for us other than our beautiful weather! Another slide that we enjoyed was on page 30 and 32, San Francisco year-over-year appreciation rates since 1990 for both single-family homes and condominiums. Taking the long view, San Francisco has seen incredible appreciation since 1990 with some significant and expected dips around national economic crisis points – the early 90s recession, 2001 (dotcom bubble pops), 2008-2011 (foreclosure/banking crisis), and 2022-2023 (the meteoric mortgage rate rise). Now it appears we are on the upswing again. It’s a good reminder that while the up and down cycles will continue, owning real estate in San Francisco has historically been a great investment! Stocks, tariffs, mortgage rates, and foreign policy can heavily influence real estate from all angles, so we still don’t know how the rest of the year will play out in terms of whether this upward swing will continue or if it will dip in the 3rd and 4th quarters. As of right now, we are encouraging our sellers to come to market as soon as possible, to take advantage of the active buyer market. For buyers, given the lack of inventory, it doesn’t make sense to wait if you find something that fits your criteria, since we aren’t foreseeing rates coming down much more (they just dropped), particularly if tariffs kick up inflation numbers. If the market slows down in the second half of the year, we will also see sellers deciding to wait to list their properties until it has recovered, which will reduce inventory and keep prices high. We are pleased to announce a number of great properties hitting the market in March and April: 625 Euclid, a single-family home in coveted Jordan Park; 1882 Green, a Pacific Heights condominium with a stunning view roofdeck; 44 Turquoise, a special mid-century single-family home in Diamond Heights; 3284 Jackson, a renovated Presidio Heights condominium with a private garden; and 2635-7 Lyon Street, a fabulous view home right on the Presidio. Check our website, www.teamhatvany.com, for these listings and more coming soon. Spring is our busiest season so the team is busy showing, prepping listings and helping buyers – but never too busy to connect with you! Please get in touch if you want more information on our upcoming listings or to discuss our market analysis. Here is the link to the Flipbook. |
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