July 2024 Market Report - San Francisco Real Estate

Dear Clients, Colleagues and Friends,

We hope you all had a wonderful July 4th holiday – summer is flying by! While the doldrums of San Francisco summer fog have certainly set in, a bright spot is the recent market report, which shows luxury sales and overall home sales rising in Q2.

We have seen an uptick in home sales in Q2 from last year overall (9%), but particularly in the $3M+ market, jumping 29%, and $5M+ market, jumping a whopping 54%! The combination of a high stock market, fairly stable interest rates, low inventory, and lower prices, have brought buyers and sellers to the negotiating table to make deals happen. Luxury home sales ($5M+) peaked for the year in March and April and have cooled in May and June, which is typical, but numbers for the quarter are dramatically up from last year at this time. There were 14 sales this year thus far over $10m, and 3 over $20M (through late May ’24). Inventory is up across the board 4% this quarter.

Overbidding percentages are at the highest reading in two years, and average days on market at the lowest. 76% of all home sales in Q2 were sold over the listing price. We are also seeing fewer price reductions as sellers have gotten more realistic in their original pricing strategy and are tending towards underpricing to create competition rather than overpricing with room for negotiation. Houses are selling at 113% of list price and condos at 100% in Q2 2024. The trend towards underpricing does distort the data on percentages of overbids and percentage sold price (vs. list price), since properties are being listed under value. Overbidding is also particularly concentrated in areas like the Sunset/Parkside/Golden Gate Heights, Forest Hill/Miraloma/West-Portal, and the Richmond/Lake District.

The condominium market continues to struggle somewhat, with the median condo sales price across the city declining by 2.5%. The declines are seen most acutely in the downtown/SoMa market, where each luxury building seems to have dozens of listings for sale and rock bottom prices. Even single-family home median prices in neighborhoods with a convenient downtown commute (Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Potrero Hill) are still down below 2018 levels currently. Condos across the city are taking longer to sell than houses, as is typical, but the average days on market for condominiums is still down from this time last year, which is good news.

Today’s (July) market is still moving, albeit at a slower pace with inventory decreased and many buyers out of town. We anticipate August to be slow particularly for the ultra-luxury market and downtown market, given that most buyers for those homes depart San Francisco for the warmer climates. Condos and single family homes at lower price points should continue to sell even through the summer. We are optimistic that come mid-August/September, buyers will return to the ultra-luxury and downtown/Nob Hill market segments with enthusiasm if the stock market continues to hold at its current meteoric levels.

We are still hoping for a cut in interest rates in 2024, but whether that will be a reality remains to be seen, as does the effects of the upcoming national and local elections. Typically, during a national election year sales are stalled around election time as everyone waits for the certainty of an outcome – and then pick up once the dust has settled and a candidate has been inaugurated. That being said, since COVID hit we have retired our crystal ball. It is impossible to consistently time the perfect combination of pricing and interest rates, but buying and selling when it makes sense for you and your family seems to us to be the most sensible course as a general strategy!Whatever your real estate needs, we are available to talk through buying, selling, or renting/holding, renovation or expansion plans, and more. You may be on vacation, but we’re in town and here to help!

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Last updated: 10/8/2025

July 2024 Market Report - San Francisco Real Estate

July 2024 Market Report - San Francisco Real Estate

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